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What are the best correlates of predicted extinction risk?

O'Grady, J. J., Reed, D. H., Brook, Barry W. and Frankham, R. (2004). What are the best correlates of predicted extinction risk?. Biological Conservation,118(4):513-520.

Document type: Journal Article
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Title What are the best correlates of predicted extinction risk?
Author O'Grady, J. J.
Reed, D. H.
Brook, Barry W.
Frankham, R.
Journal Name Biological Conservation
Publication Date 2004
Volume Number 118
Issue Number 4
ISSN 0006-3207   (check CDU catalogue  open catalogue search in new window)
Start Page 513
End Page 520
Place of Publication Oxford, England
Publisher Elsevier
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DEST)
Abstract Direct estimates of extinction risk are frequently unavailable, so surrogate indicators are used in threatened species categorizations, but there is inadequate information on which best predict vulnerability. We compared the ability of 16 frequently-used factors to predict extinction risk for 45 vertebrate taxa. Median times to extinction were estimated using taxon-specific stochastic population models. Population size (N) and trend were clearly the best correlates of extinction risk in our data set. Stepwise multiple regression with additive and interaction terms identified N, N x trend, plus taxonomic level, number of sub-populations x N x trend, number of offspring (O) and N x O as predictors, and explained 70% of the variation. Trend was important in large, but not in small populations. Population size is the most important data to collect for threatened species and with trend should be the major focus in endangered species categorization and state of the environment reporting. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords extinction risk
population size
population trend
state of the environment
vertebrates
conservation biology
setting priorities
body-size
vulnerability
water
vertebrates
attributes
threats
birds
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j,biocon.2003.10.002   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
 
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