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The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

Wilson, Tom (2007). The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections. Journal of Population Research,24(1):91-117.

Document type: Journal Article
Citation counts: Scopus Citation Count Cited 7 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Title The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections
Author Wilson, Tom
Journal Name Journal of Population Research
Publication Date 2007
Volume Number 24
Issue Number 1
ISSN 1443-2447   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Scopus ID 2-s2.0-35348823083
Start Page 91
End Page 117
Total Pages 27
Place of Publication Australia
Publisher Australian Population Association
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DEST)
Abstract This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naive model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.
Description for Link Link to OA Journal Home
URL http://www.springer.com/social+sciences/population+studies/journal/12546
 
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