Charles Darwin University

CDU eSpace
Institutional Repository

 
CDU Staff and Student only
 

Use of survival analysis to determine the postincubation time-to-death of papaya due to yellow crinkle disease in Australia

Esker, P, Gibb, Karen, Padovan, Anna, Dixon, P and Nutter, F (2006). Use of survival analysis to determine the postincubation time-to-death of papaya due to yellow crinkle disease in Australia. Plant Disease: an international journal of applied plant pathology,90(1):102-107.

Document type: Journal Article
Citation counts: Scopus Citation Count Cited 11 times in Scopus Article | Citations

Google Scholar Search Google Scholar

IRMA ID 80802555xPUB20
Title Use of survival analysis to determine the postincubation time-to-death of papaya due to yellow crinkle disease in Australia
Author Esker, P
Gibb, Karen
Padovan, Anna
Dixon, P
Nutter, F
Journal Name Plant Disease: an international journal of applied plant pathology
Publication Date 2006
Volume Number 90
Issue Number 1
ISSN 0191-2917   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Scopus ID 2-s2.0-29644446888
Start Page 102
End Page 107
Total Pages 6
Place of Publication St. Paul
Publisher American Phytopathological Society
Field of Research 0607 - Plant Biology
0706 - Horticultural Production
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DEST)
Abstract The current management recommendation for papaya (Carica papaya) plants exhibiting symptoms of yellow crinkle disease in Australia is the practice of ratooning infected plants. Ratooning involves removing the main stem of diseased papaya plants and allowing a lateral stem (supposedly pathogen-free) to develop and replace the diseased stem. Using nonparametric and parametric methods of survival analysis, we tested different hypotheses regarding plant factors that may influence the postincubation period survival time of phytoplasma-infected papaya. The factors included plant age, the season (wet versus dry) when papaya plants first became symptomatic, and the two predominant phytoplasma strains causing papaya yellow crinkle: tomato big bud (TBB) or sweet potato little leaf strain V4 (SPLL-V4). Median survival time was estimated to be from 4 to 5 months. Therefore, we estimated that the infectious period (incubation period plus the period from postincubation to time-to-death period) of infected papaya ranges from 6 to 9 months. Using parametric accelerated failure modeling and nonparametric Cox proportional hazard modeling, no significant improvement from a null model (no covariates) was found when analyzing plant age, the season a plant was observed to be symptomatic, or phytoplasma strain. However, the season in which a papaya plant became symptomatic differed between the two phytoplasma strains, indicating that the TBB and SPLL-V4 strains may have different modes of insect acquisition and transmission. Because of the long infectious period and the rate of plant-to-plant spread, we question the use of ratooning as the primary management tactic for managing papaya yellow crinkle.
Keywords kaplan-meier survival functions
phytoplasmas
epidemiology
queensland
vectors
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/PD-90-0102   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Access Statistics: 123 Abstract Views  -  Detailed Statistics
Created: Wed, 28 Nov 2007, 14:16:08 CST