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The OzEA 50% renewables modelling - results and reflections

Clark, Francis, McMillian, Ben and Brook, Barry W. (2012). The OzEA 50% renewables modelling - results and reflections. In: Solar 2012, Melbourne, Vic., Australia, 5-7 December 2012.

Document type: Conference Paper

IRMA ID 82057923xPUB341
Author Clark, Francis
McMillian, Ben
Brook, Barry W.
Title The OzEA 50% renewables modelling - results and reflections
Conference Name Solar 2012
Conference Location Melbourne, Vic., Australia
Conference Dates 5-7 December 2012
Conference Publication Title Proceedings of the 50th Annual Conference Australian Solar Energy Society (Australian Solar Council)
Place of Publication Melbourne, Vic., Australia
Publisher Australian Solar Council
Publication Year 2012
ISSN 978-0-646-90071-1   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
HERDC Category E1 - Conference Publication (DIISR)
Abstract High levels of non-dispatchable renewable generation are shown to displace the similarly inflexible coal-base-supply. Using hour level historical demand and weather data, we modelled wind and concentrating solar thermal (CST) at 50% penetration
across the National Electricity Market (NEM). These renewable sources are combined with traditional coal-base, gas-intermediate and gas-peaking supply sources, pumped storage hydro (PSH) and buffering via thermal storage within the CST plant.

This analysis has been conducted using an Open Science approach, with all data and working available online [www.oz-energy-analysis.org/TTS.html]. The use of this approach is demonstrated.

This modeling and analysis, while simplified, suggests that high levels of wind and concentrating solar thermal can be configured so that integration into the NEM does not require greatly increased gas ‘backup’, and can thus act as base-supply. As such,
these renewable supply sources are competing with coal and nuclear for the same niche in future markets.

This paper finishes with some thoughts on demand side flexibility and the importance of load shifting capacity, including the potential for expanded use of chilled water storage in air-conditioning systems.
 
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Created: Fri, 17 Jan 2014, 00:19:32 CST