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Novel coupling of individual-based epidemiological and demographic models predicts realistic dynamics of tuberculosis in alien buffalo

Bradshaw, Corey J. A., McMahon, Clive R., Miller, Philip S., Lacy, Robert C., Watts, Michael J., Verant, Michelle L., Pollak, John P., Fordham, Damien A., Prowse, Thomas A. A. and Brook, Barry W. (2011). Novel coupling of individual-based epidemiological and demographic models predicts realistic dynamics of tuberculosis in alien buffalo. Journal of Applied Ecology: ecology with management relevance,(49):268-277.

Document type: Journal Article
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IRMA ID 82057923xPUB69
Title Novel coupling of individual-based epidemiological and demographic models predicts realistic dynamics of tuberculosis in alien buffalo
Author Bradshaw, Corey J. A.
McMahon, Clive R.
Miller, Philip S.
Lacy, Robert C.
Watts, Michael J.
Verant, Michelle L.
Pollak, John P.
Fordham, Damien A.
Prowse, Thomas A. A.
Brook, Barry W.
Journal Name Journal of Applied Ecology: ecology with management relevance
Publication Date 2011
Issue Number 49
ISSN 0021-8901   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Scopus ID 2-s2.0-84855953849
Start Page 268
End Page 277
Total Pages 10
Place of Publication United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract 1. Increasing sophistication of population viability analysis has broadened our capacity to model population change while accounting for system complexity and uncertainty. However, many emergent properties of population dynamics, such as the coupling of demographic processes with transmission and spread of disease, are still poorly understood.

2. We combined an individual-based demographic (Vortex) and epidemiological (Outbreak) model using a novel command-centre module (MetaModel Manager) to predict the progression of bovine tuberculosis in introduced swamp buffalo Bubalus bubalis in northern Australia and validated the model with data from a large-scale disease-monitoring and culling programme. We also assessed the capacity to detect disease based on incrementing sentinel (randomly sampled individuals) culling rates.

3. We showed that even high monitoring effort (1000 culled sentinels) has a low (<10%) probability of detecting the disease, and current sampling is inadequate.

4. Testing proportional and stepped culling rates revealed that up to 50% of animals must be killed each year to reduce disease prevalence to near-eradication levels.

5. Sensitivity analysis indicated that prevalence depended mainly on population demography (e.g. female age at primiparity) and the additional mortality induced by disease, with only minor contributions from epidemiological characteristics such as probability of transmission and encounter rate. This is a useful finding because the disease parameters are the least well known.

6. Synthesis and applications.Our models suggest that details of population demography should be incorporated into epidemiological models to avoid extensive bias in predictions of disease spread and effectiveness of control. Importantly, we demonstrate that low detection probabilities challenge the effectiveness of existing disease-monitoring protocols in northern Australia. The command-centre module we describe linking demographic and epidemiological models provides managers with the tools necessary to make informed decisions regarding disease management. 
Keywords Bubalus
disease
invasive species
MetaModel Manager
Outbreak
population viability analysis
Vortex
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02081.x   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
 
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