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Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections

Wilson, Tom and Bell, Martin (2004). Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections. Journal of Population Research,21(2):127-160.

Document type: Journal Article
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Title Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections
Author Wilson, Tom
Bell, Martin
Journal Name Journal of Population Research
Publication Date 2004
Volume Number 21
Issue Number 2
ISSN 1443-2447   (check CDU catalogue  open catalogue search in new window)
Start Page 127
End Page 160
Total Pages 33
Place of Publication Canberra
Publisher Springer Netherlands
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DEST)
Abstract While population forecasters place considerable emphasis on the selection of appropriate migration assumptions, surprisingly little attention has been given to the effects on projection outcomes of the way internal migration is handled within population projection models. This paper compares population projections for Australia's states and territories prepared using ten different internal migration models but with identical assumptions for fertility, mortality and international migration and with the internal migration model parameters held constant. It is shown that the choice of migration model generates large differences in total population, geographical distribution and age--sex composition. It is argued that model choice should be guided by balancing model reality with practical utility and model performance is examined against these criteria. Of the ten models evaluated the authors argue that the migration pool, biregional, and biregional with net constraints models offer a good compromise between conceptual rigour and practicality. If the projected origin-destination flows are required then one of the versions of the standard multiregional model with reduced data inputs is preferred. The large variation in projection outputs points to the need for a better understanding of the spatio-temporal structure of migration in Australia.
Keywords Population movement
Demography
Mathematical Models
Forecasting
Immigration
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF03031895   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
Additional Notes CDU Research Office - NominatedResearchOutputs1.xls spreadsheet (200)
Description for Link Link to OA Journal Home
URL http://www.springer.com/social+sciences/population+studies/journal/12546
 
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