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Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia

Wilson, Tom and Bell, Martin (2007). Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia. Geographical Analysis,39(1):1-25.

Document type: Journal Article
Citation counts: Scopus Citation Count Cited 10 times in Scopus Article | Citations

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Title Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia
Author Wilson, Tom
Bell, Martin
Journal Name Geographical Analysis
Publication Date 2007
Volume Number 39
Issue Number 1
ISSN 0016-7363   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Scopus ID 2-s2.0-33845509281
Start Page 1
End Page 25
Total Pages 25
Place of Publication United States of America
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Field of Research 1604 - Human Geography
Abstract The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a crucial element of any set of subnational population forecasts. However, subnational forecasts are currently prepared using deterministic models, which fail to properly address the issue of demographic uncertainty. The traditional high, medium, and low variants approach employed by many national statistical offices poses a number of problems. Probabilistic population forecasting models have the potential to overcome many of these problems, but these models have so far been limited to national-level forecasts. This article reports a first attempt to implement a probabilistic approach to subnational population forecasting using a biregional projection framework. The article sets out the forecasting framework, outlines the approach adopted to formulate each of the assumptions, and presents probabilistic forecasts for 2002-2051 for Queensland and the rest of Australia. The forecasts show a two-thirds probability that Queensland's population in 2051 will be between 5.4 and 7.7 million while the same range for the rest of the country is 18.6 and 22.7 million. The forecasts quantify to what extent greater uncertainty exists about the demographic future at the subnational compared with the national scale.
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Created: Fri, 29 Aug 2014, 18:34:22 CST by Anthony Hornby