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Population Projections for Sparsely Populated Areas: Reconciling "Error" and Context

Taylor, Andrew (2014). Population Projections for Sparsely Populated Areas: Reconciling "Error" and Context. International Journal of Population Research,14(Article No. 658157).

Document type: Journal Article
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Title Population Projections for Sparsely Populated Areas: Reconciling "Error" and Context
Author Taylor, Andrew
Journal Name International Journal of Population Research
Publication Date 2014
Volume Number 14
Issue Number Article No. 658157
ISSN 2090-4029   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Total Pages 9
Place of Publication United States of America
Publisher Hindawi Publishing Corporation
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract Population projections are increasingly utilised as tools for understanding and modelling the economic, social, and environmental futures of sparsely populated areas. This study examines issues around “fit for purpose” for the application of projections to remote contexts. We focus on projections made for the Northern Territory of Australia, a jurisdiction in the north of the country, to assess the relative accuracy of projections over time. The results conclusively demonstrate the reduced accuracy of remote population projections. Nevertheless, the exercise of comparing and contrasting the accuracy of projections provides a useful lens for understanding demographic and other issues which necessitate that approaches for developing and utilising projections can and should be different in sparsely populated areas. We provide examples of alternative approaches to projections and the analysis of errors which researchers and analysts in sparsely populated areas might apply to other jurisdictions.
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Additional Notes This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Description for Link Link to CC Attribution 3.0 License

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