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Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making

Greiner, Romy, Puig, Javier, Huchery, Cindy J., Collier, Neil and Garnett, Stephen T. (2014). Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making. Environmental Modelling and Software,55:120-131.

Document type: Journal Article
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IRMA ID 84376995xPUB1
Title Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making
Author Greiner, Romy
Puig, Javier
Huchery, Cindy J.
Collier, Neil
Garnett, Stephen T.
Journal Name Environmental Modelling and Software
Publication Date 2014
Volume Number 55
ISSN 1364-8152   (check CDU catalogue  open catalogue search in new window)
Scopus ID 2-s2.0-84893636832
Start Page 120
End Page 131
Total Pages 12
Place of Publication United Kingdom
Publisher Pergamon Press
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract The Pastoral Properties Futures Simulator (PPFS) is a dynamic systems model, developed within a participatory action research partnership with the pastoral industry of Australia's Northern Territory. The model was purpose-built to support the industry's strategic planning capacity in the face of environmental, market and institutional uncertainty. The mediated modelling process sought to maximise social learning of industry stakeholders. Simulations were conducted using scenarios representing combinations of climatic, market, institutional and technological assumptions. Stochastic parameters included rainfall and product prices. Economic and environmental performance of model farms, including greenhouse gas emissions, were estimated. A critical evaluation of the tool finds the PPFS fit for purpose. However, limitations include lack of output validation, small number of scenarios and simplistic treatment of environmental impact dimensions. With further development, the PPFS can provide a platform (a) to assist with industry planning across the whole of Northern Australia and beyond, and (b) for policy analysis and development in the context of the Australian pastoral industry.
Keywords Dynamic simulation model
Scenario planning
Participatory action research
Mediated modelling
Validation
Pastoral industry
Australia
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.011   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
 
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