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Trajectory river modelling - a decision-support tool to help manage multiple risks associated with planning around variable water resources

Gilfedder, Mat, Podger, Geoff, Rassam, David W., Pagendam, Dan and Robinson, Catherine J. (2014). Trajectory river modelling - a decision-support tool to help manage multiple risks associated with planning around variable water resources. Marine and Freshwater Research,65(12):1072-1081.

Document type: Journal Article
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IRMA ID 84279116xPUB268
Title Trajectory river modelling - a decision-support tool to help manage multiple risks associated with planning around variable water resources
Author Gilfedder, Mat
Podger, Geoff
Rassam, David W.
Pagendam, Dan
Robinson, Catherine J.
Journal Name Marine and Freshwater Research
Publication Date 2014
Volume Number 65
Issue Number 12
ISSN 1323-1650   (check CDU catalogue  open catalogue search in new window)
Start Page 1072
End Page 1081
Total Pages 10
Place of Publication Australia
Publisher C S I R O Publishing
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract The application of river-system models to inform water-resource planning and management is a growing global phenomenon. This requires models to be applied so that they are useful to water decision makers charged with setting targets that provide adequate water flows to sustain landholders and communities. This article examines why and how the innovative application of river-system models can facilitate interactions between water science and water management in Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin (the Basin). A trajectory river-modelling method was applied to run multiple short historical climate sequences through a river-system model to provide historical probabilities. These can allow better assessment of the risks and impacts associated with stream flow and water availability. This method allows known historical variability to be presented, and produces relevant results for a 10–15-year water-sharing plan lifetime. The benefits were demonstrated in the Basin’s Lachlan Catchment where modelled river-flow results demonstrated the increased variability between shorter 15-year sequences than for a single 114-year run. This approach highlighted the benefits of expressing modelling results as historical probabilities to inform short-term and strategic water-planning efforts.
Keywords Historical probabilities
Hydrology
Lachlan catchment
Murray-darling
Surface water
Variability
Water Management
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF14002   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
 
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