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Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria

Keith, David, Mahony, Michael, Hines, Harry, Elith, Jane, Regan, Tracey, Baumgartner, John, Hunter, David, Heard, Geoffrey, Mitchell, Nicola, Parris, Kristen, Penman, Trent, Scheele, Ben, Simpson, Christopher, Tingley, Reid, Tracy, Christopher, West, Matt and Akcakaya, Resit (2014). Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria. Conservation Biology,28(3):810-819.

Document type: Journal Article
Citation counts: Altmetric Score Altmetric Score is 14
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IRMA ID 84376995xPUB113
Title Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN red list criteria
Author Keith, David
Mahony, Michael
Hines, Harry
Elith, Jane
Regan, Tracey
Baumgartner, John
Hunter, David
Heard, Geoffrey
Mitchell, Nicola
Parris, Kristen
Penman, Trent
Scheele, Ben
Simpson, Christopher
Tingley, Reid
Tracy, Christopher
West, Matt
Akcakaya, Resit
Journal Name Conservation Biology
Publication Date 2014
Volume Number 28
Issue Number 3
ISSN 0888-8892   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Scopus ID 2-s2.0-84900413729
Start Page 810
End Page 819
Total Pages 10
Place of Publication United States
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions.
Keywords amphibian
frog
population model
risk assessment
species distribution model
threatened species
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12234   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
 
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