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Short-term forecast error of Australian local government area population projections

Wilson, Tom (2015). Short-term forecast error of Australian local government area population projections. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies,21(2):253-275.

Document type: Journal Article
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IRMA ID 79607912xPUB9
Title Short-term forecast error of Australian local government area population projections
Author Wilson, Tom
Journal Name Australasian Journal of Regional Studies
Publication Date 2015
Volume Number 21
Issue Number 2
ISSN 1324-0935   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Start Page 253
End Page 275
Total Pages 23
Place of Publication Australia
Publisher AJRS - Regional Science Association * Australian and New Zealand Section
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract Local government area population projections produced by state and territory governments are regularly subject to criticism for their supposed inaccuracy. This paper examines the 2006 round of such projections for five states, assessing their forecast accuracy after five years. It is demonstrated that, overall, the projections are quite accurate over this five year period relative to both user needs and simple extrapolations which constitute a basic benchmark. It is shown how the error distributions of these projections can be used to create approximate prediction intervals indicating the likely range of error in current local area projections.
Keywords Population projections
Forecast error
Prediction interval
Local government area
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URL http://anzrsai.org/assets/Uploads/PublicationChapter/Wilson-2015-2.pdf
 
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Created: Tue, 26 Jul 2016, 12:49:20 CST