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Accuracy of Nearly Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating Very Elderly Subnational Populations

Terblanche, Wilma and Wilson, Tom (2015). Accuracy of Nearly Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating Very Elderly Subnational Populations. International Journal of Population Research,2015(Article No. 978186).

Document type: Journal Article
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IRMA ID 84278914xPUB68
Title Accuracy of Nearly Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating Very Elderly Subnational Populations
Author Terblanche, Wilma
Wilson, Tom
Journal Name International Journal of Population Research
Publication Date 2015
Volume Number 2015
Issue Number Article No. 978186
ISSN 2090-4029   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Total Pages 16
Place of Publication United States of America
Publisher Hindawi Publishing Corporation
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract Increasing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have potentially major implications for the cost of income support, aged care, and healthcare. The availability of accurate estimates for this population age group, not only at a national level but also at a state or regional scale, is vital for policy development, budgeting, and planning for services. At the highest ages census-based population estimates are well known to be problematic and previous studies have demonstrated that more accurate estimates can be obtained indirectly from death data. This paper assesses indirect estimation methods for estimating state-level very elderly populations from death counts. A method for incorporating internal migration is also proposed. The results confirm that the accuracy of official estimates deteriorates rapidly with increasing age from 95 and that the survivor ratio method can be successfully applied at subnational level and internal migration is minor. It is shown that the simpler alternative of applying the survivor ratio method at a national level and apportioning the estimates between the states produces very accurate estimates for most states and years. This is the recommended method. While the methods are applied at a state level in Australia, the principles are generic and are applicable to other subnational geographies.
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Additional Notes This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Description for Link Link to CC Attribution 3.0 License

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