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An Evaluation of Nearly-Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating the Very Elderly Populations of Australia and New Zealand

Terblanche, Wilma and Wilson, Tom (2015). An Evaluation of Nearly-Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating the Very Elderly Populations of Australia and New Zealand. PLoS One,10(4 - Article No. e0123692).

Document type: Journal Article
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IRMA ID 84278914xPUB69
Title An Evaluation of Nearly-Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating the Very Elderly Populations of Australia and New Zealand
Author Terblanche, Wilma
Wilson, Tom
Journal Name PLoS One
Publication Date 2015
Volume Number 10
Issue Number 4 - Article No. e0123692
ISSN 1932-6203   (check CDU catalogue  open catalogue search in new window)
Total Pages 21
Place of Publication United States of America
Publisher Public Library of Science
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DIISR)
Abstract The rapid growth of very elderly populations requires accurate population estimates up to the highest ages. However, it is recognised that estimates derived from census counts are often unreliable. Methods that make use of death data have not previously been evaluated for Australia and New Zealand. The aim was to evaluate a number of nearly-extinct cohort methods for producing very elderly population estimates by age and sex for Australia and New Zealand. The accuracy of official estimates was also assessed. Variants of three nearly-extinct cohort methods, the Survivor Ratio method, the Das Gupta method and a new method explicitly allowing for falling mortality over time, were evaluated by retrospective application over the period 1976-1996. Estimates by sex and single years of age were compared against numbers derived from the extinct cohort method. Errors were measured by the Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error. It is confirmed that for Australian females the Survivor Ratio method constrained to official estimates for ages 90+ performed well. However, for Australian males and both sexes in New Zealand, more accurate estimates were obtained by constraining the Survivor Ratio method to official estimates for ages 85+. Official estimates in Australia proved reasonably accurate for ages 90+ but at 100+ they varied significantly in accuracy from year to year. Estimates produced by Statistics New Zealand in aggregate for ages 90+ proved very accurate. We recommend the use of the Survivor Ratio method constrained to official estimates for ages 85+ to create very elderly population estimates for Australia and New Zealand.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123692   (check subscription with CDU E-Gateway service for CDU Staff and Students  check subscription with CDU E-Gateway in new window)
Additional Notes This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Description for Link Link to CC Attribution 4.0 License
URL https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/au


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