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Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China

Zhou, XN, Yang, GJ, Yang, K, Wang, XH, Hong, QB, Sun, LP, Malone, JB, Kristensen, TK, Bergquist, NR and Utzinger, J (2008). Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene,78(2):188-194.

Document type: Journal Article
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Title Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China
Author Zhou, XN
Yang, GJ
Yang, K
Wang, XH
Hong, QB
Sun, LP
Malone, JB
Kristensen, TK
Bergquist, NR
Utzinger, J
Journal Name American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Publication Date 2008
Volume Number 78
Issue Number 2
ISSN 0002-9637   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Start Page 188
End Page 194
Total Pages 7
Place of Publication US
Publisher American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Field of Research 1117 - Public Health and Health Services
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DEST)
Abstract Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4°C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8°C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0°C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9°C in 2030 and 1.6°C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km2 by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.
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Created: Fri, 01 May 2009, 13:14:47 CST by Sarena Wegener