Charles Darwin University

CDU eSpace
Institutional Repository

 
CDU Staff and Student only
 

Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China

Zhou, XN, Yang, GJ, Yang, K, Wang, XH, Hong, QB, Sun, LP, Malone, JB, Kristensen, TK, Bergquist, NR and Utzinger, J (2008). Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene,78(2):188-194.

Document type: Journal Article
Citation counts: Google Scholar Search Google Scholar

Title Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China
Author Zhou, XN
Yang, GJ
Yang, K
Wang, XH
Hong, QB
Sun, LP
Malone, JB
Kristensen, TK
Bergquist, NR
Utzinger, J
Journal Name American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Publication Date 2008
Volume Number 78
Issue Number 2
ISSN 0002-9637   (check CDU catalogue open catalogue search in new window)
Start Page 188
End Page 194
Total Pages 7
Place of Publication US
Publisher American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Field of Research 1117 - Public Health and Health Services
HERDC Category C1 - Journal Article (DEST)
Abstract Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4°C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8°C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0°C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9°C in 2030 and 1.6°C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km2 by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Access Statistics: 47 Abstract Views  -  Detailed Statistics
Created: Fri, 01 May 2009, 13:14:47 CST by Sarena Wegener